Assessing Excise Tax Gaps in Zambia: Unlocking Revenue Potential for Fiscal Sustainability

by | Aug 6, 2026 | AMTJ, AMTJ 2026 I1

Assessing Excise Tax Gaps in Zambia: Unlocking Revenue Potential for Fiscal Sustainability

Authors: Evaristo Mwale, Ezekiel Phiri & Kelvin Mpembamoto

ISSN: 2709-8575
Affiliations: N/A
Source: African Multidisciplinary Tax Journal, Volume 6, Issue 1 (2026)

Abstract

Zambia faces persistent fiscal pressures that require stronger domestic resource mobilization. Although the tax-to-GDP ratio stood at 17.3 percent in 2020, excise duty performance remains below potential. Excise taxes contributed 1.1 percent of GDP and 8.1 percent of total revenue, but collections have been volatile, with declining yields from cigarettes, motor vehicles, and hydrocarbon fuels, pointing to underlying structural and administrative challenges. This study applies a tax gap approach to assess excise performance from 2016 to 2020 using national statistics data and tax administration data. While overall excise gaps are below 1 percent of GDP, significant gaps appear in soft drinks, non-alcoholic beverages, and tobacco. Compliance issues, especially in the soft drinks industry, have worsened since 2019, with over 70 million litres not captured in the tax net. The study recommends broadening the tax base, introducing ad valorem rates, and adopting automatic indexation to enhance revenue and strengthen excise duty sustainability.

The Impact of Tax Expenditure (TE) on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Nigeria: An Opportunity Cost Approach — Evidence from Newey-West Regression

by | Aug 6, 2026 | AMTJ, AMTJ 2026 I1

The Impact of Tax Expenditure (TE) on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Nigeria: An Opportunity Cost Approach — Evidence from Newey-West Regression

Authors: Alhasan Usman, Bilkisu Inuwa Jibril, Sha’awa Mohammed & Nafisa Lawan

ISSN: 2709-8575
Affiliations: N/A
Source: African Multidisciplinary Tax Journal, Volume 6, Issue 1 (2026)

Abstract

Tax expenditures (TE) remain an area of contention in fiscal policy debate: it is seen as a legitimate instrument for investment promotion and economic stimulus that can expand the tax base over time; on the other hand, critics argue that the revenue forgone by TE implies that resources are diverted away from financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) without commensurate developmental benefits. This study empirically investigates the nexus between tax expenditures and the attainment of the SDGs in Nigeria, using quarterly time series data from January 2019 to December 2025. Given confirmed heteroskedasticity and serial correlation, the Newey-West heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimator is used as the primary basis for statistical inference, with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression reported alongside as a robustness and coefficient-stability check. The study adopts two regression specifications: a baseline model examining the unmoderated effects of GDP, tax revenue, tax expenditure, debt servicing, and foreign aid on SDG outcomes, and a moderated model with institutional quality (IQ) as a moderating variable. Model stability is confirmed by the Ramsey RESET test. The results indicate that tax expenditures negatively affect SDG progress in a statistically significant manner. Likewise, debt servicing constrains development outcomes. The results reveal positive relationships between GDP, tax revenue, and foreign aid with SDG performance, but the introduction of institutional quality as a moderator significantly diminishes these effects by 91.2%, 82.0% and 43.9% respectively, making the effects of tax revenue and foreign aid statistically insignificant. Weak institutional quality worsened the negative impacts of tax expenditure and debt servicing by 25.18% and 44.75%, respectively. These results validate the opportunity cost of tax expenditure policy in Nigeria. Lost revenue is a binding constraint to SDG financing and is compounded by severe institutional deficiencies that reduce the developmental returns to available fiscal resources. The study advocates for a holistic tax expenditure policy reform, underpinned by rigorous cost-benefit and opportunity cost analyses and institutional capacity building.

Tax Transition in ECOWAS: Leveraging the AfCFTA as a Catalyst for Domestic Resource Mobilization

by | Aug 6, 2026 | AMTJ, AMTJ 2026 I1

Tax Transition in ECOWAS: Leveraging the AfCFTA as a Catalyst for Domestic Resource Mobilization

Authors: Youssifou Aguorigoh & Galadima Traoré Firdaws

ISSN: 2709-8575
Affiliations: N/A
Source: African Multidisciplinary Tax Journal, Volume 6, Issue 1 (2026)

Abstract

This study examines the potential impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on domestic revenue mobilization in ECOWAS countries. Trade potential is first estimated using a gravity model with high-dimensional fixed effects and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood over the period 2000-2022. Robustness checks rely on alternative estimators, including negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial models. Trade potential is further estimated using the approach proposed by Fontagné et al. (2002). The generalized method of moments (GMM) is then applied to assess the impact of trade potential under AfCFTA on domestic revenues. Results show that: (i) AfCFTA has a positive and statistically significant impact at the 1% level; (ii) ECOWAS countries exhibit untapped trade potential of about 11% within AfCFTA markets; and (iii) AfCFTA trade potential significantly enhances domestic tax mobilization. These findings support the effective implementation of AfCFTA alongside strengthened domestic tax reforms, including VAT modernization and harmonization, as well as stronger enforcement of rules of origin.

Overcoming Cultural and Political Barriers to a Whole-of-Government Approach to Countering Illicit Financial Flows in Africa

by | Aug 6, 2026 | AMTJ, AMTJ 2026 I1

Overcoming Cultural and Political Barriers to a Whole-of-Government Approach to Countering Illicit Financial Flows in Africa

Author: Bernd Schlenther & Jeffrey Owens

ISSN: 2709-8575
Affiliations: N/A
Source: African Multidisciplinary Tax Journal, Volume 6, Issue 1 (2026)

Abstract

Inter-agency cooperation is made possible by overcoming legal, operational and political barriers, and success can be measured in the manner agencies decide to work together. Once legal barriers to cooperation have been removed, key implementation questions arise for participating agencies, often relating to overcoming operational and cultural barriers. By adopting a qualitative literature-review and policy-analysis methodology relying on academic literature, international organisation reports, legal-policy documents, and selected African case examples, cultural, operational, and political barriers to inter-agency cooperation in countering illicit financial flows are identified. The analysis is used to develop a risk-assessment framework for improving inter-agency cooperation to address IFFs through a whole-of-government approach. The paper provides a conceptual and normative approach to improved inter-agency cooperation through mechanisms such as risk assessments, leadership, trust-building, governance structures, and institutional and policy reforms, offering clear policy recommendations and suggestions for implementation at operational and policy level.

Taxing Informality in Malawi: A Comparative Assessment of Policy Instruments and the Role of Digitalisation

by | Aug 6, 2026 | AMTJ, AMTJ 2026 I1

Taxing Informality in Malawi: A Comparative Assessment of Policy Instruments and the Role of Digitalisation

Author: Waziona Ligomeka

ISSN: 2709-8575
Affiliations: N/A
Source: African Multidisciplinary Tax Journal, Volume 6, Issue 1 (2026)

Abstract

Malawi faces sustained fiscal pressures stemming from reduced external assistance, recurring macroeconomic shocks, and rising public debt. Strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation has therefore become a central policy priority. Although the informal economy accounts for a substantial share of employment and economic activity, it remains difficult to tax because many enterprises operate with low and irregular incomes, limited accounting records, cash-based transactions, and weak visibility to tax authorities. This study comparatively examines five instruments used to tax and formalise informal economic activity in Malawi: Advance Income Tax (AIT) on imports, the Block Management System (BMS), Withholding Tax (WHT), Tax Clearance Certificates (TCCs), and Presumptive Tax. Using a qualitative comparative policy-analysis design, the study draws on legislation, Malawi Revenue Authority (MRA) publications, policy reports, and academic literature. The instruments are assessed against four criteria: revenue mobilisation, administrative feasibility, compliance and formalisation outcomes, and long-term sustainability.
The analysis suggests that indirect, transaction-based instruments, particularly WHT and AIT, are comparatively more effective than direct field-based approaches because they operate through observable transactions and third-party intermediaries. TCCs also provide a strong incentive for compliance by linking tax status to access to public procurement, importation, licensing, and other regulated commercial opportunities. By contrast, BMS and Presumptive Tax have modest short-term revenue potential but remain important as mechanisms for taxpayer-discovery and simplified entry points into the tax system. Digitalisation can strengthen all five instruments by improving taxpayer identification, transaction traceability, data integration, and risk-based enforcement. The study concludes that informal-sector taxation should be understood principally as a long-term strategy for expanding tax capacity and supporting gradual formalisation, rather than as an immediate mechanism for extracting substantial revenue from micro-enterprises.