Abstract

This article examines how the OECD/G20 Global Anti-Base Erosion (GloBE) Pillar Two rules affect the legal design and project economics of South Africa’s upstream oil and gas tax regime. It addresses a gap in the literature by combining doctrinal analysis of the Global Minimum Tax Act 46 of 2024 with an adaptation of the IMF’s Fiscal Analysis of Resource Industries model for a representative project. Under the modelled assumptions, the Qualifying Domestic Minimum Topup Tax reduces the investor’s internal rate of return from 29% to 27%, and its net present value (NPV) from US$4.792 billion to US$4.423 billion, while increasing the NPV of government fiscal receipts excluding state participation by 13.7%. A scenario applying the 2026 Substance-based Tax Incentive Safe Harbour partly restores investor returns. The article concludes that Pillar Two partially neutralises the Tenth Schedule incentives and proposes a policy response for incentive design, legislative oversight and fiscal-stability negotiations.