Abstract

This study investigates the influence of value-added tax (VAT) expenditure on VAT effort (VEF) and the VAT compliance gap (VCG) in Nigeria. It uses quarterly time series data spanning 2011 to 2022. The analysis applies the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model alongside the vector error correction model (VECM) to evaluate the relationships between the variables. Findings from the empirical analysis indicate that VAT expenditure significantly reduces VEF while increasing the VAT compliance gap, in both the short term and the long term. Additionally, per capita consumption (PCC) was found to exert a significant negative effect on VEF across both timeframes. The research concludes that VAT expenditure adversely affects VEF and compliance behaviour over time in Nigeria. Considering these negative implications for tax revenue and compliance, it is recommended that the Nigerian government and the Federal Inland Revenue Service should reassess the existing VAT expenditure framework. This reassessment should involve a comprehensive cost–benefit analysis to ensure that tax concessions are limited to cases where the anticipated benefits surpass the costs. Furthermore, efforts should be made to eliminate superfluous tax expenditures to enhance revenue mobilisation and improve compliance.