The Role of Electronic Tax Stamps System on Revenue Collection in Tanzania

by | Jul 3, 2025 | AMTJ, AMTJ 2025 I1

The Role of Electronic Tax Stamps System on Revenue Collection in Tanzania

Authors: Innocent Nyamfulula; Cornel Joseph; August O. Kessy; Elly H. Mloso

ISSN: 2709-8575
Affiliations: Institute of Tax Administration, Tanzania Revenue Authority; Mkwawa University College of Education, University of Dar es Salaam; Institute of Tax Administration, Tanzania Revenue Authority; Institute of Tax Administration, Tanzania Revenue Authority
Source: African Multidisciplinary Tax Journal, Volume 5, Issue 1 (2025), p. 296–310
https://doi.org/10.47348/AMTJ/V5/i1a14

Abstract

This study examined the Electronic Tax Stamps (ETS) System’s role in revenue collection in Tanzania with a focus on cigarettes, beer and spirits. The results from a trend analysis show an increase in respective revenue in the immediate period after the introduction of the ETS system. Moreover, the estimated results from the regression with Newey-West standard errors show that the coefficient associated with the ETS is positive and statistically significant. Thus, the study concludes that ETS plays a critical role in improving excise revenue performance and fostering a more transparent and efficient fiscal system in Tanzania. The government and policymakers should continuous improvement of the ETS system so that it can contribute significantly to revenue collection. Also, the ETS System should be backed by a well-designed system of enforcement so as to realize a more positive contribution to revenue collection.

Digitalising Tax Compliance and Elevating Revenue Forecasting in Rwanda: Evidence from Statistical Modelling and Machine Learning

by | Jul 3, 2025 | AMTJ, AMTJ 2025 I1

Digitalising Tax Compliance and Elevating Revenue Forecasting in Rwanda: Evidence from Statistical Modelling and Machine Learning

Author: Clement Uwizeye

ISSN: 2709-8575
Affiliations: Wageningen University & Research (WUR)
Source: African Multidisciplinary Tax Journal, Volume 5, Issue 1 (2025), p. 311–330
https://doi.org/10.47348/AMTJ/V5/i1a15

Abstract

This paper explores the dual role of digitalisation and advanced forecasting models in enhancing tax compliance and revenue prediction in Rwanda. It investigates the impact of electronic billing machine (EBM) adoption on tax performance, the comparative accuracy of traditional econometric models (Bayesian VAR) versus machine learning models (NNAR and Ensemble), and the policy implications of these findings. Using data from 2010 to 2023, the analysis reveals that while EBM usage has expanded significantly, its impact on tax revenue is limited due to enforcement and implementation challenges. Regression results indicate that trade openness, financial development and effective governance positively influence tax revenue, whereas corruption and remittance inf lows pose challenges. Forecasting models indicate a moderately optimistic outlook for tax-to-GDP and trade integration, with NNAR outperforming other models in predictive accuracy. The study concludes with key policy recommendations focused on strengthening digital compliance infrastructure, addressing corruption, supporting financial sector development and leveraging machine learning for more accurate fiscal forecasting. These insights are vital for designing evidence-based tax reforms and achieving sustainable domestic resource mobilisation in Rwanda.

Forecasting Tax Revenue Using Arima and Vector Autoregressiive (VAR) Modelling in Tanzania

by | Jul 3, 2025 | AMTJ, AMTJ 2025 I1

Forecasting Tax Revenue Using Arima and Vector Autoregressiive (VAR) Modelling in Tanzania

Author: Masoud Mohammed Al-biman

ISSN: 2709-8575
Affiliations: Lecturer, Institute of Tax Administration (ITA), Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania
Source: African Multidisciplinary Tax Journal, Volume 5, Issue 1 (2025), p. 331–352
https://doi.org/10.47348/AMTJ/V5/i1a16

Abstract

This article intends to examine whether times series approaches of ARIMA and VAR are effective in forecasting tax revenue. It also compares the two approaches to evaluate which is the more effective forecasting method. Quarterly data from 1996Q1 to 2016Q4 (21 years or 84 observations) are used to forecast the tax revenue for the period 2017Q1 to 2017Q4. Five common types of taxes are selected due to their significant contributions to Tanzania’s total tax revenue collected by the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA). Generally, the results reveal that both time series approaches are effective and demonstrate strong predicting power in short-horizon tax revenue forecasting. However, in most cases that the VAR model outperforms ARIMA modelling, especially based on forecasting criteria. However, we suggest that both methods to be applied by the TRA in forecasting tax revenue as their forecasting errors differ only slightly.

Going Concern(ed): Potential Challenges in Sale-of-Business Transactions

by | Jun 16, 2025 | BTCLQ, BTCLQ V16 I2

Going Concern(ed): Potential Challenges in Sale-of-Business Transactions

Author: Siyabonga Nyezi

ISSN: 2219-1585
Affiliations: Attorney of the High Court of South Africa
Source: Business Tax & Company Law Quarterly, Volume 16 Issue 2, 2025, p. 1 – 8

Abstract

One of the fundamental tenets of any sale-of-business transaction is that the business to be transferred must be a going concern, and be transferred as such. Not only is the concept of a going concern given life in the provisions of a sale-of-business agreement, it is also found in various pieces of legislation that apply to the transfer of a business. Examples include the Value-Added Tax Act 89 of 1991, the Labour Relations Act 66 of 1995 and, to some extent, the Companies Act 71 of 2008. Each of these statutes contains provisions where the status of a business as a going concern is a key consideration. As such, one might expect that the term ‘going concern’ ought to be defined in each of these Acts. That assumption would be incorrect, as none of these statutes provide a direct and objective definition of the term ‘going concern’.
This article examines the absence of a definition for ‘going concern’ in South African legislation applicable to the transfer of a business, and the risks arising from the lack of legislative clarity. The article considers the relevant provisions of the aforenamed statues. Absent a legislative definition, the article examines the attempts made by the courts to defi ne the term ‘going concern’ in two cases, namely, Kopeledi (Pty) Ltd v Madontsela and Others (2009) 30 ILJ 158 (LC) and NEHAWU v University of Cape Town (2003) 24 ILJ 95 (CC), and the challenges resulting from those definitions.
Thirdly, the article also explores the approach taken in the International Accounting Standards (IAS), and discusses the challenges also present therein. The article submits that, despite being an internationally accepted set of standards, IAS is not particularly instructive to the present cause.
The article then delves into the potential impact of all these lacunae on sale-of-business transactions, and concludes with an attempt at legislative drafting, proffering a proposal for what a definition of ‘going concern’ might look like.

Rethinking Incentives in Africa Due to Pillar 2

by | Jun 16, 2025 | BTCLQ, BTCLQ V16 I2

Rethinking Incentives in Africa Due to Pillar 2

Author: Esther Geldenhuys

ISSN: 2219-1585
Affiliations: Partner, Bowmans Attorneys
Source: Business Tax & Company Law Quarterly, Volume 16 Issue 2, 2025, p. 9 – 15

Abstract

It is well known that base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) has adversely affected Africa over the years. If African countries do not participate in Pillar 2 it could again reduce African tax collection. Yet very few African countries have to date implemented or taken some form of measure to implement Pillar 2. This is despite the fact that a significant number of African countries signed either the first or the second joint statement of the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on BEPS to implement the two-pillar solution.
Pillar 2 aims to ensure that multinational enterprises within scope pay a minimum of 15% corporate tax in each jurisdiction in which it operates. The ground rules for Pillar 2 are set out in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Global Anti-Base Erosion Model Rules. These rules provide for three types of top-up taxes, being the income inclusion rule, the undertaxed payment rule (also known as the undertaxed profits rules) and the qualified domestic minimum top-up tax rule (also known as a domestic minimum top-up tax).
The African Tax Administration Forum strongly recommends that African countries immediately enact the qualified domestic minimum top-up tax rule as provided for under Pillar 2, to protect themselves from giving away taxing rights to other jurisdictions applying the top-up tax under Pillar 2 arising from tax incentives. However, not all tax incentives are affected by the GloBE Rules to the same extent. South Africa has various tax incentives and incentive regimes that may lower the effective tax rate to below 15%. This article considers some of these incentives in the context of the GloBE Rules.